Quotes of the Day

Monday, Oct. 23, 2006

Open quoteWhen former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay announced in an Austin courtroom five months ago that he was moving on to a new stage in his life and then sashayed out of the courthouse with that ever-present grin, he left voters in his district in a whirl of confusion and anger. DeLay told TIME he thought he could do more for the conservative cause outside Congress, but that still left his constituents with lots of unanswered questions.

Texas' 22nd Congressional district may be as flat as the rice fields that run to the horizons southeast of Houston, but it has been a roller-coaster ride for Republicans, in yet another of those once safe G.O.P. districts that is now a gleam in the eye of Democratic Party leaders. "If this race gets any rockier, writing about it will require a chisel," Bob Dunn, editor of the FortBendNow news blog, told his readers.

• Is There Any Hope of Defeating Arnold?
Democrat Phil Angelides is way behind the California governor. Here are four keys to how he could (but probably won't) pull off a last-minute surprise


• A Texas-Size Race for Governor
Thanks to an unusually crowded field, Governor Rick Perry will probably win reelection - but he may not have much to celebrate


• A Republican in Trouble in Indiana
Incumbent John Hostettler has solid conservative credentials, and he voted against the Iraq war. A recipe for reelection? Think again


• A Fight Over Affirmative Action in Michigan
The man behind the California racial preference ban is back at it again, this time in Michigan, where his ballot initiative could prevail over a strong, organized opposition


• Courting Missouri's Moms
In one of three upper South statesthat Democrats need to win to take control of the Senate, the gender gap could make the difference


• Tom DeLay's Gift to the Democrats
The controversial former House leader thought he could help the G.O.P. by getting out of this year's race. But his departure has thrown his home district into election chaos -- and very likely into the Democrats' hands


• Fighting Dirty on the Net
Online political debate is not known for its subtlety--the blogosphere rewards the loudest voices and the brashest opinions...


• The GOP Gets Nervous in Tennessee
In the race for the Senate, Harold Ford wasn't supposed to have much appeal outside his home base of Memphis. But now that he is in a virtual dead heat with his Republican opponent, the race is getting down and dirty


• A Conservative Face-Off in Kentucky
Voters in this state's 4th congressional district have no problem with the values of Republican incumbent Geoff Davis. They have a problem with his party, and that's why his equally conservative Democratic challenger just may win


• Playing the Victim in Louisiana
Democrat William Jefferson is a target of a federal corruption investigation and not welcome in his own party. But with the backing of New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, he may just win reelection


• The G.O.P.'s Firewall Strategy
With the Foley scandal increasing the likelihood of a Democratic win in the House, Republicans are turning their attention -- and money -- to the Senate


• No Politics is Local in Ohio
Republican incumbent Deborah Pryce faces an uphill battle in her bellwether midwestern district, a clear sign that this is a very different kind of midterm election


• Running from the GOP in New Jersey
In a race that may hold the key to control of the Senate, Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. hopes to knock off a Democratic incumbent by keeping a distance from his own party


• Pork Trumps Scandal in West Virginia
Democrat Alan Mollohan was supposed to be one ethically challenged incumbent that Republicans could beat. But so far, voters don't seem to agree


• On the Attack in Illinois
The Incumbent governor and his Republican challenger compete to tar each other with the sins of the state's disgraced former chief executive


Blog Coverage


• Real Clear politics
News, Opinion and Commentary on the Political Issues of the Day


• White House Photo Blog
An intimate look at the administration through the eyes of TIME's press corps photographers


After Democrats pleaded successfully with the court in June to block Republicans from replacing the tarnished DeLay on the ballot, he requested that his name be dropped, leaving the party with no option but to run a write-in candidate. That spot has fallen to Houston city councilwoman and dermatologist Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. And even in a district that President George W, Bush won with 64% of the vote in 2004, most experts on both sides of the aisle say winning with a write-in campaign is a long shot.

"I am not as pessimistic as I was," said Royal Masset, a longtime Texas Republican operative. "I think she has a real outside chance, maybe a one in 20 shot. I am amazed at how the party has united behind her." Some Democrats, including Andy Hernandez, a former Democratic National Committee staffer and Hispanic voting expert, are being cautious. "It's still a Republican district," he said.

But now it is a Republican district without a Republican on the ballot. The only names voters will see in the District 22 space on the general election ballot will be Democratic front-runner Nick Lampson and Libertarian Bob Smithers. If they want to vote Republican in the race for the new term beginning in January they will have to write in Sekula-Gibbs' name.

Sekula-Gibbs got a small boost when Gov. Rick Perry decided to call a special election to fill out the few months remaining in DeLay's current term, also on general election day, Nov. 7. The Texas Secretary of State then ordered that the special election ballot should go atop the general election ballot, putting Sekula-Gibbs' name in full view of the voters, along with four other Republicans and a Libertarian. Former Democratic Congressman Lampson, who was redrawn out of his old Houston-area district as part of the infamous DeLay redistricting plan, chose not to run in the special election for the two months left of DeLay's term — most likely because he would not win, Republican Masset said.

Republicans are hoping that seeing Sekula-Gibbs' name at the top of the ballot in the special election, voters will be more likely to write in her name when they get to the regular ballot. To help Republicans do so, Sekula-Gibbs sings a little ditty at her campaign spots to the tune of "Roll Out the Barrel" — "Vote twice for Shelley. Special and then write her in."

When the write-in campaign became inevitable, there was talk of a $3 million infusion from the national party, but that proved to be one of those "sure, let's get together again, I'll call you" moments. The National Republican Campaign Committee has chipped in about $100,000 and some mailers. But Sekula-Gibbs has raised a respectable half-million dollars from individual Republicans, including $150,000 at a Dick Cheney Houston fundraiser in early October. DeLay has donated his campaign voter list, and Texas Republican stars like U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison have been on the ground campaigning for Sekula-Gibbs. As an added boost, President George W. Bush plans to attend a rally for her on Oct. 30 that is sure to draw a large crowd of G.O.P. faithful.

Lampson is running a campaign focused on local issues. At an area-wide Democratic candidate forum he eschewed the antiwar/anti-Bush rhetoric of his fellow Democrats and focused on health care and transportation. Meanwhile, Republicans in this conservative district are trying to link him to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Democratic donors like Barbra Streisand. With $3.3 million in the bank and an $850,000 television ad buy courtesy of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Lampson is stressing his early struggles in a poor, hardworking Texas family and his work for education, his support of the Johnson Space Center (it became part of the district after DeLay's redrawing of Congressional lines) and child protection issues during his eight prior years in Congress.

Of course, organization is the key and Republicans handily beat Democrats in turnout in the spring primary by some 25,000 votes. But in this flatland district, Sekula-Gibbs has an uphill battle.

"Lampson will win," said Austin Republican political consultant Bill Miller. "This is all about 2008, when the district goes back to the Republicans." And, hopefully, to a more orderly election process. Close quote

  • HILARY HYLTON/AUSTIN
  • The controversial former House leader thought he could help the G.O.P. by getting out of this year's race. But his departure has thrown his home district into election chaos — and very likely into the Democrats' hands